Estonia's January Anomaly: Deep Freeze, Drought, and Flooding
Estonia endured one of its coldest and driest Januaries in decades, with average temperatures plunging 4.7°C below the norm, while ice jams on rivers like the Narva triggered localized flooding despite precipitation reaching only 30% of the long-term average.
- —January in Estonia was significantly colder than the long-term average, with the average temperature reaching -7.8°C, making it one of the coldest starts to the year in the last 25 years.
- —Despite the cold, the ground remained unfrozen due to a thick insulating snow layer, though ice jams caused localized flooding in Põltsamaa and Kuningaküla, notably on the Narva River.
- —Precipitation was exceptionally low, with only 15 mm of rain recorded, placing it as the fifth driest January in nearly a century of observations.
- —Conversely, January was unusually sunny, with an average of 44 hours of sunshine across Estonia, exceeding the norm by 11 hours and ranking it tenth sunniest since 1961.
- —Looking ahead, February is forecast to be colder than average with below-normal precipitation in the first half, followed by more snow and near-normal precipitation in the latter half.
Recap
January's weather in Estonia was a statistically significant event defined by concurrent, opposing extremes: severe cold, exceptional dryness, and unusual sun. The primary impact stemmed not from precipitation but from ice jams, causing localized floods that highlight infrastructure vulnerabilities. This combination of factors underscores the complex and sometimes counterintuitive effects of anomalous winter patterns, with a forecast for continued cold suggesting prolonged pressure on energy resources and emergency services.