Estonian Intel: Russia Depleted, Poses No Imminent NATO Threat
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service concluded in its 2026 annual report that Russia has no intention of attacking a NATO member state in the coming year, as its military remains depleted by the war in Ukraine despite a seventeenfold increase in artillery ammunition production since 2021.
- —The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service's annual report assesses that Russia has no intention of launching a military attack against Estonia or any other NATO member state within the next year.
- —Despite significant losses and depleted Soviet-era military stockpiles from the war in Ukraine, Russia's leadership, particularly Vladimir Putin, remains committed to Ukraine's subjugation and maintains a belief in Russia's unique global role.
- —The report highlights that while sanctions impact Russia's economy, loopholes persist, and Russia is actively seeking to reshape the global order by courting the 'global majority' and influencing neighboring regions like Moldova and the Baltic-Scandinavian macro-region.
- —Estonia and NATO are urged to continue investing in defense to counter Russia's ongoing military reforms and growing reliance on unmanned systems, ensuring Russia's calculations of the balance of power remain unfavorable to Moscow.
- —Russia faces increasing economic and social instability due to the prolonged war, though a complete economic collapse is deemed unlikely, with evidence suggesting preparation for future conflicts through increased ammunition production.
Recap
Russia's immediate military threat to NATO is neutralized by its exhaustion in Ukraine, but this is a temporary condition, not a strategic shift. Moscow's focus has pivoted to undermining the global order through influence operations and economic maneuvering while its defense industry, evidenced by a massive surge in ammunition production, prepares for future conflicts. The assessment underscores that the confrontation with Russia is a long-term challenge of containment and technological competition.