Estonia: Russia Pivots to Africa, Preps for Future War
Estonian intelligence assesses Russia is expanding its influence in Africa through soft power and military cooperation while undertaking a massive seventeenfold increase in artillery ammunition production, signaling a long-term conflict strategy even as the immediate threat of an attack on a NATO member remains low.
- —Russia is expanding its influence in Africa through military cooperation, soft power initiatives like education and culture, and by deploying officials who can no longer serve in Western-facing roles.
- —The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service assesses that Russia has no intention of attacking Estonia or any NATO member in the coming year, attributing this to defensive measures taken by Europe and Estonia.
- —Moscow is actively promoting anti-Western narratives in Africa, portraying itself as a partner against perceived neo-colonialism and offering a multipolar world order.
- —Despite efforts to strengthen ties, Russia's practice of sending African students to fight in Ukraine has damaged relations with some African nations.
- —Russia's military is undergoing reforms, including a significant expansion of unmanned systems units and a seventeenfold increase in artillery ammunition production since 2021, indicating preparation for future conflict.
Recap
Russia is executing a dual strategy: using Africa as a geopolitical theater to build alliances and counter Western influence, while simultaneously retooling its military-industrial complex for a long-term conflict. The immediate threat to NATO is assessed as low, but Moscow's actions indicate a strategic focus on preparing for future large-scale warfare, making its African engagement a component of a broader global power struggle.